Foghlaimfidh Foghlaimeoidh tú Gaeilge go leor ag an gceardlann. Téifidh Rachaidh mé go California an mhí seo chugainn.
ithfidh íosfaidh mé haggis ariamh. Pacáileoidh Pacálfaidh sé ag an nóiméad deireanach, creidim.
[Stem broadens, Type I]
Oscaileoidh Osclóidh fear an phoist na litreacha níos déanaí.
rachfaidh rachaidh mé ar ais go dtí an siopa sin.
thiománóidh thiomáinfidh mé an carr sin aríst!
[Stem stays slender (less common), Type I]
bhfaighfidh bhfaighidh sibh bhur ndóthain bia leis an gcóisir anocht?
mbeirfidh mbéarfaidh na Gardaí ar an ngadaí?
n-imireoidh n-imreoidh siad peil amárach? Tarfaidh Tiocfaidh an traen ag an sé. Léoidh Léifidh muid an leabhar sin sa gclub atá againn. Deirfidh Déarfaidh mé é aríst agus aríst eile. Gheobhfaidh Gheobhaidh na cailíní éadaí nua go luath. Scríobhaidh Scríobhfaidh mé alt leis an nuachtlitir, nuair a bheas an t-am agam.
Níl féar a ghearradh ann.
Am maith leat éin? Is féidir leat go héasca a féachaint ar na spideoga dorcha ar an sneachta bán.
Cealaitear comhdhláchta deacair.
Má bhainann tú ag obair amach, is laoch tú ansin. Beidh oibrithe eile ag fanacht sa bhaile.
Tá bialanna don séasúr ann.
Is féidir go mbeadh an Taoiseach buidéal uisce beatha a thabhairt don Uachtarán. Ní fadhb é inniu. Ach bhí George W. Bush Uachtaran SAM cúig bliana ó shin. Ní dhóladh Uachtaran Bush deochanna alcólacha. Má thug an Taoiseach dó uisce beatha, bheadh scéalta grinn faoi Uachtaran Bush. Cuimhin linn go raibh scéalta grinn go leor Bush cheana. Bheadh sé bronntanas breá do Jay Leno agus David Letterman.
The total proposed NASA budget for Fiscal Year 2014 (which starts Oct. 1, 2013) is $17.7 billion. This is $55 million lower than 2012, and $170 lower than 2013. That’s a drop of roughly only 1 percent, which these days can be considered holding steady.
|cul an tí||back of the house|
Will was back, so we went over the first part òf the homework from last time. Corrected notes follow.
After posting about The Prosecutor's Fallacy I recalled a similar case with the Defense in the O.J. Simpson trial. The issue was summarized in What is your favorite problem for an introduction to probability?:
... one of Simpson’s lawyers, Alan Dershowitz, noted that even though Simpson beat his wife, that hardly mattered, because in the United States, four million women are battered every year by their male partners, yet only one in 2,500 is ultimately murdered by her partner (1 in 1000), so, by the 'reasonable doubt' criterion, this is irrelevant. The jury found that argument persuasive, but it’s spurious. The relevant question was what percentage of all battered women who are murdered are killed by their abusers, which ain't 1 in 1000, but rather 9 in 10.
For a clear explanation of the details see Chances Are, by Steven Strogatz, which is reprinted in his excellent book, The Joy of x: A Guided Tour of Math, from One to Infinity.
Notation: Prob(A) means "the probability of event A" and Prob(A|B) is "the probability of event A, given that event B has happened."
Bayes' Theorem: Prob(A|B)xProb(B) = Prob(B|A)xProb(A)
Now, Prob(A|B) and Prob(B|A) are often confused by even the most intelligent of people. The confusion often appears in legal cases and is sometimes called the Prosecutor's Fallacy. Bayes' Theorem relates these two distinct conditional probabilities.
Followed by a straightforward example of why this really matters.
We had arrived at a very specific candidate theory of the strong interaction, one based on precise, beautiful equations. And we had specific, quantitative proposals for testing it.
A measurement that's off by 7 standard deviations may hint at new physics.
In The Puzzle of the Proton and the Muon, Matt Strassler is skeptical:( Read more...Collapse )
"The recent discovery of Richard III does not change the abbey's position, which is that the mortal remains of two young children, widely believed since the 17th century to be the princes in tower, should not be disturbed."
On December 8 Metro Transit added a new express bus line to downtown Minneapolis, where I work. The northern terminus of this bus line is about 1¼ miles from my home. This is well within normal walking distance for me, and there are sidewalks along Rice Street, where traffic can be quite serious. So I decided it was time to leave the car at home and do my normal commuting entirely by walking and public transportation like mia_mcdavid and I did in Chicago until 1987. I have been doing so ever since.
This has both pros and cons:( Read more...Collapse )